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Full text of "The Calculation and Analysis of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Chongqing, China"

International Journal of Remote Sensing Applications URSA

The Calculation and Analysis of Water Resource
Carrying Capacity in Chongqing, China

Ming Li

School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China

dawn@swu.edu.cn



Abstract-The fast urbanization in Chongqing has had a great
impact on the environment and resources. The water resource
has been recognized as one of the key elements to the sustainable
development of this region. This paper presents a method of
predicting the regional Water Resource Carrying Capacity
(WRCC) using the supply-demand balance model. The method
predicts that the WRCC of Chongqing is from 110 million
persons to 160 million persons in 2020 and it will not become the
bottleneck of the social and economic development of Chongqing
in the coming period of time. However the climate change and its
impact on the regional ecology will have an effect on it. The
results show that the climate is the most important element of the
WRCC of Chongqing and the protection of the ecological
environment in the upstream area is also very important. This
paper has proposed tangible advice on the sustainable social and
economic development in context of water resource.

Keywords-Sustainable Development; Water Resource Carrying
Capacity (WRCC); Urbanization; Chongqing



• Practicability. The research of WRCC needs to guild
significance for regional socio-economic sustainable
development, and the conclusion of research should be
simple and practical. The prediction of regional socio-
economic development scale is inclined to select
macroscopic indicator, so the calculation of regional
population size is more important for WRCC.

According to the analysis of above properties and research
of Cao J-T 1 1 and Jiang W-C [12] , a supply-demand balance
model of regional water resources has been established in this
paper. By using the model to make calculation of WRCC in
Chongqing in 2020, the result of this study will provide
reference data for various socio-economic and medium-long
term plans in Chongqing.

II. METHODS AND STUDY AREA



I. INTRODUCTION

Sustainable utilization of water resources is vital to human
existence and socio-economic sustainable development. With
the rapid population growth and socio-economic development,
the demand for water is increasing and water resources are
under mounting pressure. Water resource has been recognized
as one of the key elements to the sustainable development in a
region. So study on the amount of available water resources is
very important.

Water Resource Carrying Capacity (WRCC) has been
recognized as a key indicator for study on the amount of
regional available water resources. It still didn't get a united
definition currently [1][2] , but many foreign researchers, such as
Rijsberman MA. , Joardar S.D. [4, and Harris J.M. [51 , already
use the indicator to measure the amount of available water
resources because of its importance. In China the earliest
research of WRCC was in Xinjiang in 1985 [61 , later many
scholars, such as Shi Y-F [7] , Xv Y-P [sf , Xv Z-M [9] , Jiang X-H [ld] ,
Zhang Y-G [ll] , adopted various methods to calculate the
WRCC in various areas.

The WRCC is complex and it shows the following
properties:

• Time effectiveness. The value of WRCC will change
with the passage of time, so the calculation of WRCC
needs a limit of time and the time is best from 10 to 20
years in the near future.

• Item constraints. The calculation of WRCC needs
some constraint conditions, and the value of WRCC
varies along with changes of constraint conditions. In
all constraint conditions, social development level,
technical and economic condition and the virtuous
circle of ecosystem usually are the key element.



A. Calculation Methods

The WRCC which is limited by many elements, such as
population, economy and environment, is a reflection of
regional socio-economic development scale. It can be
computed when the water resource is in a supply-demand
balance.

The computational model can be defined as:

W c = maxf{C 1 , C 2 , C 3 , ...,Cj} (1)

V 1 ! demand — W sup ply (2)

where W c is a regional WRCC, f is a comprehensive
benefit function, C, are various constraint indices, such as
population, economic and environmental indicator. Wdemand is
the demand total amount of water resources for regional socio-
economic development, W sup ply is the regional available total
amount of water resources.

The demand total amount of water resources for regional
socio-economic development ( Wdemand ) includes domestic
water consumption, productive water consumption and
ecological water requirement. The productive water
consumption mainly includes industrial water consumption and
agricultural water consumption, the water consumption of
tertiary industry is considered as part of industrial water
consumption.

The form of demand total amount of water resources
( Wdemand ) can be presented as:

Wdemand = Wd + Wl + Wa + We (3)

where W D is domestic water consumption, W: is industrial
water consumption, W A is agricultural water consumption, W E



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International Journal of Remote Sensing Applications
is ecological water requirement. The calculation forms of W D ,



and W A can be presented as:

Wd = Rdu xPu + Rda X Pa (4)

Wi = Ui/ Pi (5)

Wa = Rai x A, (6)



where R DU and R DA are urban domestic water consumption
standard and rural domestic water consumption standard, its
unit is L/ ( p«d ) . P v and P A are urban population quantity and
rural population quantity. Ui is the gross industrial output value,
P r is the average industrial output value of per unit water, and
the unit of P] is ten thousand Yuan/m 3 . R AI is the agricultural
water consumption standard of effective irrigation area, its unit
is m 3 /hm 2 . A] is the agricultural effective irrigation area.

The ecological water requirement means the minimal water
demand for supporting the integrality and the virtuous circle of
ecological system in the region, which can be divided into the
ecological water requirement inside river channels and the
ecological water requirement outside river. The functions of
ecological water requirement inside river channels are mainly
to prevent the dry river, to maintain the habitat of aquatic
organisms, to keep riverbed stability and water self -purification
ability. The ecological water requirement inside river channels
accounts for 50-60% of annual average run-off volume in
general [ '. The ecological water requirement outside river
mainly includes ecological water requirement of vegetation,
lake and wetland, etc, which is relatively constant and depends
mainly on regional ecological environment status and
ecosystem type. In urban area, the ecological water requirement
outside river also includes urban municipal water consumption

[141

The calculation forms of regional socio-economic



development scale can be defined as:

U = Ui + Ua = Ui + Pra x Ar (7)

Up = U I P = (Ui + Ua) I P = (Ui + PraX Ar) I P (8)

P = Pu + p A = p x r + P x (1 - r) (9)



where U is industrial and agricultural gross output value, U P
is per-capita industrial and agricultural output value. For
making the equations be easy to calculate, GDP and per-capita
GDP can be instead of U and U p . U A is agricultural gross
output value, P^ is unit area agricultural average output value,
A R is area of agricultural production, P is population quantity,
and r is urbanization rate.

The regional available total amount of water resources
( W sup ply ) includes regional internal total water resources
quantity and regional external water flow. The regional internal
total water resources quantity includes surface and subsurface
water yield from local precipitation, the surface and subsurface
water yield is called too surface water resources amount and
ground water resources amount.

The regional external water flow means available input
amount of water resources from external region.

The calculation forms of regional available total amount of
water resources ( W sup ply ) can be defined as:



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W sup ply = Wr + We, (10)

where W R is regional internal total water resources quantity,
Wex is regional external water flow.

On condition that dimension is neglected, with solving
simultaneous equations (2)~(10), the WRCC can be calculated
and be defined as:

Wr + Wex- We + PraAr/Pi-RaAi

P = (11)

Rdu X r + Rda X (1-r) + Up/Pi

where P is the regional Water Resource Carrying Capacity
(WRCC). If the regional available total amount of water
resources ( W sup ply ), urbanization rate and other related
technical and economic indicator can be predicted in a region,
the regional population size (WRCC) can be calculated.

B. Study Area

Chongqing is located at 28°10'~32°13' north latitude and
105 o ll' ~ 110°11' east longitude(Fig.l). It is a large
commercial and industrial center, and has convenient
communications. In 1997, it was granted as the fourth
municipality of China. Covering an area of 0.0824 million
square kilometers, the municipality is 470 kilometers wide
from east to west and 450 kilometers long from north to south.
There were a total of 19 districts and 21 counties in Chongqing
in 2007. Chongqing's eastern part is lower than the western part,
with lots of hills in the northwest and in the middle areas, Daba
Mountain, and Wuling Mountain stretch to the southeast.
Chongqing has a subtropical humid monsoon climate with four
distinct seasons. The summer of Chongqing is hot and the
winter is warm, with a long frost-free period. In 2007 annual
average temperature of this region was 19.0°C and its annual
precipitation was 1439.2mm [ .




Fig 1 . The location of Chongqing municipality.

Chongqing's GDP is 4122.51 hundred million Yuan in 2007,
in which the primary industry is 482.39 hundred million Yuan
(12.2%), the secondary industry is 1892.10 hundred million
Yuan (43.0%), and the tertiary industry is 1748.02 hundred
million Yuan (44.8%). Chongqing's per-capita GDP is 14660
Yuan and its total resident population is 28.16 million in 2007,
there is a high speed of urbanization in Chongqing, of which
the growth rate of urban population has increased to 48.3% in
2007 from 31.3% in 1999 fl5 (



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International Journal of Remote Sensing Applications

III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

According to the conditions of Chongqing's middle and
long-term social and economic development planning
compilation and the time effectiveness of WRCC, the
calculation time of WRCC was determined as 2020 in this
paper.

A. Demand Total Amount of Water Resources ( W demand )

1 ) Domestic Water Consumptiont:

The domestic water consumption includes urban domestic
water consumption and rural domestic water consumption.

The urban domestic water consumption mainly includes
resident living water, resident municipal water, environmental
sanitation and Greening water, in which the resident living
water occupy 50%~70% in general. The rural domestic water
consumption mainly includes resident living water,
environmental sanitation, and drinking water of livestock. The
urban and rural per-capita domestic water consumption is
respectively 212 L/d and 68 L/d in China at present [13] ,
Chongqing's per-capita domestic water consumption is about
1 12 L/d and 68 L/d at present [16] .

According to the regulations Ministry of Housing and
Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China
and Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China, the
urban per-capita resident living water consumption standard is
100-140 L/d in Chongqing' 1 the rural per-capita resident
living water consumption standard is 50-90 L/d in
Chongqing 1181 .

Considering that Chongqing's social economic will reach a
higher level in 2020, the urban per-capita domestic water
consumption standard was determined as 212 L/d, and the rural
per-capita domestic water consumption standard was
determined as 105 L/d in this paper.

2) Productive Water Consumption

The average industrial output value of per-unit water was
about 50 Yuan/m 3 , and the agricultural water consumption
standard of effective irrigation area was 30m 3 /hm 2 in recent
years in China [13] . The average industrial output value of per-
unit water and the agricultural water consumption has an
increasing trend in Chongqing in recent years [1 \ In Chongqing,
the ten thousand Yuan industrial water consumption is 135 m ,
and the agricultural water consumption of per-unit area is about
3255 m 3 /hm 2 in 2006 [16] .

According to analysis of above indicator and research of
Wang H , Chongqing's ten thousand Yuan industrial output
value standard was determined as 40 m 3 , and Chongqing's
annual agricultural water consumption standard was
determined as 6675 m 3 /hm 2 in 2020 in this paper.

According to the scheme of Chongqing's Eleventh Five-
Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development,
Chongqing's per-capita GDP was determined as 45000 Yuan in
2020 in this paper.

The agricultural output value accounts for GDP proportion
is 12.2% in 2007 and has a decrease trend in recent years in
Chongqing [ I The agricultural output value accounts for GDP
proportion was determined as 5% in 2020 in this paper, and the
agricultural gross output value was determined as 600 billion
Yuan, agricultural average output value per hectare was



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determined as 4.5 ten thousand Yuan, the agricultural effective
irrigation area was determined as 80 ten thousand hectares.

According to the Urban-Rural Master Planning of
Chongqing (2007-2020), Chongqing's urbanization rate was
determined as 70% in 2020 in this paper.

3) Ecological Water Requirement:

According to analysis of above paragraphs , the ecological
water requirement inside river channels was determined as
60% of annual average run-off volume in this paper.

Landform of Chongqing is paralleled ridge -valley of east
Sichuan, and there is higher vegetation coverage in Chongqing.
Combining with research of Lin C [19] , the ecological water
requirement outside river of Chongqing was predicted as 4.35
billion m 3 in 2020 in this paper.

B. Available Total Amount of Water Resources ( W sup ply )

1 ) Total Amount of Water Resources:

In general, total amount of regional water resources is the
average value for many years. According to analysis of
Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Water Resources, the total
amount of regional water resources is 567.72524 billion m 3 ,
and thel annual average runoff volume is also 567.72524
billion m 3[16] .

2) Regional External Water Flow:

The regional external water flow includes artificial water
diversion and available amount of transit water. There is no
relevant planning of artificial water diversion from external
region in Chongqing, so the regional external water flow of
Chongqing is an available amount of transit water.

With 207 river basin area more than 100 km 2 and 40 river
basin areas more than 1000 km 2 , Chongqing's river system is
centripetal, asymmetrical, and braided. Yangtze River, Jialing
River, and Wu River are the largest river in Chongqing. The
transit water amount is enormous in Chongqing, its average
value for many years is 3981.32 billion m 3 .

The available transit water mainly depends on the
reasonable distribution of transit water in its basin. The water
distribution method of river basin is not generally accepted at
home and abroad recently, but regional fairness principle is
fundamental for reasonable distribution of transit water in its
basin [21] . In a sense, the regional fairness principle needs to
reflect difference between upstream and downstream of a river
basin in land resources and social economic development level
and needs to keep sustainable development of the whole basin.
So the land area proportion and population quantity reflecting
social economic development level are considered to be the
basis for distribution of transit water in its basin in this paper.

Chongqing's land area accounts for 4.58% of total area of
Yangtze River basin, and its population accounts about for 8%
of total population of Yangtze River basin [15] . So the 4.58%
and 8% are considered to be the lower limit value and the
upper limit value of available transit water amount proportion
of Chongqing in this paper. Hereby, available transit water
amount of Chongqing can be calculated. Its value is
182.344-318.5056 billion m 3 .

According to equations (10), the available total amount of
water resources can be calculated. Its value is
334.4721-470.6332 billion m 3 .



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International Journal of Remote Sensing Applications

3) Water Resource Carrying Capacity(WRCC):

According to equations (11) and determined data from
paragraphs above, the WRCC can be calculated in Chongqing
with its value for 110-160 million people in 2020.
Chongqing's population is 28.16 million in 2007 1151 , so water
resource will not become a main limiting element of
Chongqing's social and economic development in the near
future. But water resources utilization of Chongqing needs to
pay attention to the following respects:

• Chongqing's available total amount of water resources
has a bigger change. The available amount of water
resources from Chongqing area is 380.3191 billion m 3
in dry year [ ] . It is only 66.99% of average value for
many years, and the lowest value of available transit
water in Chongqing is 182.3445 billion m 3 , with the
highest value reached up to 318.5056 billion m3. The
climate change is a key factor to Chongqing's WRCC,
and Chongqing's available total amount of water
resources has a decrease trend in recent years.

• The calculation results show that water resource is not
a main limiting element of Chongqing's social
economic development. But the spatial distribution of
water resource and socio-economic development of
each district are imbalanced in Chongqing, so the water
resource probably has a stronger restriction effect to
the development of some districts of Chongqing.

IV. CONCLUSIONS

WRCC is a key element for sustainable utilization of
regional water resources. According to the calculation results
of this paper, for reducing the negtive effects of water resource
to Chongqing's socio-economic sustainable development, the
Chongqing municipality government should enhance the
following respects:

• To establish the water distribution agreement of
relative river basin of Chongqing for ensuring
calculation accuracy of WRCC. It's a difficulty to
calculate the available transit water amount in WRCC.
The reasonable distribution of transit water is a key
element for calculating available transit water amount.

• To ensure realization of various technical and
economic indexes. Various technical and economic
indicators are constraint conditions to calculate
regional WRCC. The calculation of WRCC is not only
to calculate the regional population scale, the
calculation, and realization of various technical and
economic indicators are important too. Calculation
result of WRCC may be a bigger error if some
technical and economic indicators can not be achieved.

• Establish water-saving society is significant to improve
Chongqing's WRCC. According to the supply and
demand balance model of regional water resources in
this paper, when the regional available total amount of
water resources keeps invariant, reducing the demand
total amount of water resources can improve the
regional WRCC. It's very important to improve water-
use efficiency, reduce water pollution, ensure
ecological water use, and realize regional sustainable
development to establish water-saving society.



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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The project was supported by "the Fundamental Research
Funds for the Central Universities" (XDJK2010 C054) and
"the doctor foundation of Southwest University" (S WU 1 1 1 00
8).



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